Will a double dissolution be necessary?

Given the conservative control of the Senate, there has begun to be discussions around the traps about the possibility that a double dissolution will be required after the next federal election, should Labor win government.

Can Labor wrest control of the Senate back at the next election?

Probably not.

The major gains for the Coalition in the Senate occurred at the 2004 election, and these Senators will not be up for re-election until sometime in 2010.

Of the 40 Senators who will face re-election, 20 are from the Coalition, and 20 are from the ALP, the Greens and the Democrats.

In order for the Coalition to lose the majority in the Senate, the ALP, (plus any other progressive forces, such as the Greens) will need to win at least at least 3 Senate seats in each state, at least one in each of the territories, and at least 4 in at least one state. This would require a phenomenal swing to the non-Coalition parties.

Would a Labor government be able to govern with a Coalition controlled Senate?

Probably not.

With a Labor government seeking to roll back many of the Howard government's most cherished achievements, it is very unlikely that Coalition Senators will be amenable to Labor's extensive agenda. This includes WorkChoices, the sedition laws and full fee places in universities.

But, how are we going to change the face of Australian politics?

Through a double dissolution, my friend.

If piece of legislation is rejected by the Senate twice, then the government of the day can choose to dissolve both houses of government in their entirety, and put the issue to the electorate. It is likely that Labor will have many popular double dissolution triggers, including the repeal of Work Choices.

After that election, there is a joint sitting of the houses of parliament, where the contentious piece of legislation is voted upon. Given that the House of Representatives is about twice the size of the Senate, the view of the newly elected government tends to prevail.

But will Beazley have the ticker?

Your guess is as good as mine.